[shamelessly copied from Serotta thread]
In the latest issue of Bicycle Quarterly, which just arrived yesterday, they test several new racing bikes (including a Trek Madone) and then explore whether they can find evidence to suggest that improvements in cycling technology have improved racing speeds.
Their conclusion: “There is no evidence that racing bikes have become significantly faster during the last 40 years.”
Their methodology is interesting: they examine actual racing speeds from from the Tour de France over the last 100 years. They also examine speeds from the Milan-San Remo race, which has been run on the same course for 100 years.
Then, as a “control,” they tracked down the best speeds for running the 5k and 10k on track for each year over the last 100 years.
The theory is that the top men’s running speeds will show the trend of how much general athletic performance has improved in the last 100 years, due to improvements in diet, training, specialization of athletes, etc… The hypothesis is that if bike technology has led to faster real-world cycling speeds, the cyclists’ average racing speeds would have improved faster than running speeds.
Their conclusion: almost all improvements in cycling speeds is attributable to general improvements in athletic performance (cycling speeds have not risen faster than running speeds). [for stats geeks, the correlation was 88%; they attribute the remaining unexplained variation to general variability]
They examine long-term speed trends during each period of the Tour’s history – looking at whether improvements in road surfaces, frame technology, aerodynamics in TT bikes, etc. have really helped. They also look at a couple of periods when the TdF’s speeds decreased – the 20’s (hypothesis: loss of a generation of racers to WWI) and since 2005 (hypothesis: stricter doping controls).
Conclusion: “There is no evidence that advances in cycling technology since WW II have led to faster racing speeds…this does not preclude that modern bicycles are slightly faster than traditional ones, but the effect clearly is too small to detect…this means that the best recipe for riding faster is training harder and smarter, rather than trying to buy speed with the latest bicycle technology.”
discuss!