I’m not sure how to define a bubble for ebikes, but I don’t think of them as one. Maybe need to separate the consumers from the manufacturers?
Maybe there are too many companies making ebikes, too many have jumped on the bandwagon, and in the coming years many of them will fold. I could see that.
But as far as consumers are concerned, IMO they (and their demand) are here to stay. I don’t see them jumping onto any bandwagon. Modern ebikes are a genuine advancement in power-assisted cycling, and many consumers have been wanting exactly that. It’s not a fad.
I"m pretty ok with that. Part of different stages of life is accepting that circumstances change. Unless you want to go fuck up the local roadie group ride with your sick new $17k Creo, because that’s just hilarious.
The most annoying e-bike interactions I have had have all been with commuters who do stupid things like cut me off, ride on the sidewalk and then zoom out into the road/bike lane without looking, or just trying to “sprint” me. That said, I’ve had more interactions like that with middle aged dudes than I’ve had with people on e-bikes, so…
The ebike problem isn’t the bike, it’s the dumbass rider. There’s a guy on the Bremerton boat who uses a DOT approved helmet with a chinbar, and having seen him ride it’s an appropriate choice.
I don’t know if it’s just a freedom land thing, but in my travels to Europe where cycling is seen as a valid and safe mode of transport, e-bikes are exceptionally prevalent and the riders are very responsible. Maybe that’s just who I’ve seen, but here are a few scenarios:
Commuting from their small, suburban towns with appropriate work luggage so they aren’t sweaty when they get to work. Within cities, the infrastructure is so good, people who live there usually have reg bikes, walk, or take public transit.
I’ve met quite a few older people who have always mtb’d but since they’ve aged, they cannot ride to AND ride the trails without being completely exhausted.
Older couple who have always ridden, but one cannot keep up with the other, especially in places where hills and big climbs are unavoidable. It’s cute really.
I haven’t see many people on hi-pro e-roadies, but the hybrid and mtb segment is very, very strong. I actually didn’t see very many super cheap chinese e-bikes. Probably because 1) people value their bikes a lot more than in the US and 2) many European countries have strict anti-dumping regulations
once the boomers have died off, the gen x-ers will be well into joint replacement but still wanting to feel like a rebellious teen of the 80s and there will be ways to market e-bikes to them
you can be sure as shit me in 30 years will be dropping large coin on some throwback steamroller with motor-assist and aerospokes so I can pretend i’m just as cool as I believed I was in college
Already shrinking margins and ever-increasing pressure from e-commerce competition of shared brands as well as direct to consumer brands is already doing what it’s doing.
Now add exponentially more complex machines to the mix that require specialized/proprietary tools and far greater product knowledge from employees who are still making less than an amazon box runner because of the reason above.
Now pressure these dealers to chase the dragon by tying up 10 hybrids worth of dollars on ONE bike.
Sure, sell it, take those dollars to the bank, but you’ve now only served ONE customer not TEN. 1/10 the chances to sell a helmet, bottle, cage, sunglasses, whatever. ONE customer that now owns a bike that is not only harder to work on (where’s my free tuneup?) but is less likely to be replaced with an upgrade when that normie grows out of their Trek FX and buys a Roubaix or Diverge.
Plus EVERYTHING said about chasing boomer dollars and how they are literally starting to die off and EMPLOYEES in the industry can’t even afford these silly machines.
Now add that the vast majority of America looks NOTHING like Europe where ebikes are crushing and the mere act of lifting a 50+ pound bike onto even a Kuat rack to go drive to the trailhead isn’t quite as much fun when you’re closing in on retirement age.
Bubble.
More bike shops are going to kick the bucket over this.
super interesting breakdown, and it nicely captures why spreading money across more people tends to be better.
Are people strategizing shops after boomers are gone and all their money went to the CEOs of assisted living facilities? Is everyone too busy trying to figure out what smaller brands to drop to buy the minimum number of $15k roadbike style mopeds to try to sell?
That said, I’ve had more interactions like that with middle aged dudes than I’ve had with people on e-bikes, so…